Nokia: 2 million Lumias in Q1

We sort of had some feeling that despite the fan fare and advertising revenue given to the Nokia Lumia line, the sales have been a bit lackluster. For the last six weeks of 2011, the Lumia sold an estimated 600,000 devices and ultimately sold about 1.2 million devices for the full period prior to the January quarterly earnings call. This week, Nokia revealed that it has sold about 2 million Windows Phone Lumia devices worldwide. If we’re thinking about this mathematically, it is a relatively simple measure since the last earnings call. Assume that the 600,000 device number is true for a moment. From January onward, the Lumia sold (or gave away) about 600,000 more devices. From the 2 million device number in Q1, we have about 1.4 million devices sold post the conference call. This is in addition to the Lumia 800 and 710 being open to other markets worldwide. When you think about it, the number (either the 2 million, or the 1.4 million device figure post the last quarter earning call) has me a bit concerned. Should we be concerned here no matter which number one uses here?

via: Mary J Foley

401 days ago by in Microsoft , news , Nokia | You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
About the

I am a clinical psychology student that loves to inform on news related to smarphones and technology in general. I also love Microsoft's current Windows Phone OS as it is top of the class in terms of ux.

  • surur

    I wish you would stop repeating that bogus 600k number. Canalys said 1.2 million Lumias sold to carriers and only 600K meego handsets. Who are going to believe, Canalys or an idiot?
    http://wmpoweruser.com/canalys-says-close-to-10-million-windows-phones-shipped-in-total-nokia-grabbed-50-of-q4-2011-windows-phone-shipments/

    • Malcolm Williams

      600k
      the number for 6 weeks and january is 1.2 million
      but the number from the last part of q4 2011 is 600k
      Face it, as much as we don’t (or do) like to admit, the number is pretty valid and it doesn’t negate the 1.2 million, but adds details to the murkiness of the derivation of the numbers.

      Of course, this could also be a bias to admit that the n9, despite the lesser rollout in the major areas where Nokia does well at, outsold the Lumia despite the fan fare…

      • surur

        Nonsense.  Canalys says 1.2 million in Q4 2011, not Q4 and a bit of Q1.  Read their report.

        “Despite a disappointing set of financial results, Nokia’s smart phone performance in the fourth quarter gave cause for optimism. It shipped 19.6 million smart phones, down 31% from the record high of a year earlier, but up 17% on Q3 2011. The total was helped by 1.2 million and 0.6 million shipments of its Windows Phone and MeeGo-based products respectively, as well as improved Symbian Belle volumes from competitively priced devices such as the Nokia 500, 700 and 701. Its total smart phone shipments for the year came in at 77.3 million globally. ”

        • Malcolm Williams

           I wonder if you realize the number wasn’t derived from canalys but instead from the nokia business call, not inasmuch their typical market research. so we still have no idea where the combined number is coming from especially since
          Windows doesn’t release numbers
          600k still sounds fairly plausible in addition to the figures from January making 1.2 million devices so far adding both sales
          Skew it another way surur, let’s assume I am wrong and you’re right for a moment.
          Nokia had the advertising budget of microsoft and their own budget, to only muster a total of 1.2 million units in all of the eu and in other markets? Plus opening the market in America in addition with the 710, china, and other markets, and only 2 million more were sold?
          With all of the grandiose marketing, right now I like the 600k number because it means that by some grace of God, Nokia pushed 600k units in less than a month! And that’s not too bad versus the grim realization that the former top smartphone manufacturer is overtaken by Samsung and their Lumia line hasn’t fully taken off yet.

          • surur

            That 600 K number comes from Tomi AntiNokia’s twisted estimates.  I wonder if you are able to repeat his logic.

            Regarding Windows Phone sales, at this stage everyone knows its a tough slog. We know not to expect miracles and small numbers.  Growth is the only thing which is important.

            I think Windows Phone would have sold a lot better if they copied the iPhone UI, like Android, Meego, Nokia Belle and all the other ones did, and I said as much here.
            http://wmpoweruser.com/charlie-kindel-is-wrong-about-why-windows-phone-has-not-taken-off/

            Microsoft decided to be the anti-iphone and take the hard path. That means not only convincing buyers to like Windows Phone, but also to not like the iPhone.  Thats hard work, but they are having slow success. 

            In short, everyone needs to lower their expectations. Growth and customer satisfaction is the only important metric at present

            Also Nokia investors are being a bit stupid. If Nokia’s share price drops so low as to be a take over target I am sure Microsoft will be buying them at a high premium, and due to GoogleRola they will not face any antitrust issues. Investors are only selling away their pay-off.

          • Malcolm Williams

             That 600 K number comes from Tomi AntiNokia’s twisted estimates.  I wonder if you are able to repeat his logic.

            that’s not where the number came from. While he agreed with the statistical value, that’s not the derivation of the number. Secondly, seeing that he sorta helped make Nokia what he is today, right or wrong, his opinion is to be respected. If it wasn’t for him, there wouldn’t be much of a Nokia to discuss. Let’s just get that from jump. As far as the logic, I think I indicated in a previous article the number is from intomobile. I’m currently on the phone as I type this so bear with me, I’ll edit it the initial response to indicate exactly which post I quoted.

            I think Windows Phone would have sold a lot better if they copied the
            iPhone UI, like Android, Meego, Nokia Belle and all the other ones did,
            and I said as much here.

            I don’t think it has much to do with UI versus how much it has to do with market perception and reception. And while some reviewers did initially enjoy Mango, it is difficult not to indicate its shortcomings even as a windows phone user and lover of the platform. Meego does do a lot of tasks far better than Windows Phone, is far more flexible, and surprisingly very robust. A lot of things Windows Phone in its current iteration is not.

            As I said in a previous article, OEM, carrier/reseller ultimately dictate what is being sold and what isn’t being sold. Microsoft ticked off many OEMs. That’s not some sort of illogical OMFG stance, it’s actually a pretty fair assessment given the previous comings and goings under windows phone.

            Microsoft decided to be the anti-iphone and take the hard path.

            No, they became exactly like the iphone in effect bullying the OEMs, bullying carriers/resellers. Like I said before, we got an iphone, carriers DO NOT WANT another iphone. Secondly, the entire anti-iphone campaign was capitulated by verizon in 2009 to sell their first droid, and it worked famously by pointing out the fragmented limitations of the current iphone. And many still remember the choice because of the advertising campaign which created a counterculture of anti iphone, but pro droid. Microsoft did take the iphone stance, and unlike iphone, they were not so lucky and ultimately it shows in their sluggish sales

            hat means not only convincing buyers to like Windows Phone, but also to
            not like the iPhone.  Thats hard work, but they are having slow
            success.

            Works very well for android…

            In short, everyone needs to lower their expectations.

            Why should I lower my expectation of what Windows Phone can or cannot do? For that matter, why should I give a phone a pass if competing platforms perform the task much much better? I want Windows Phone to succeed ultimately, and it can. If things were done differently than the way they are done now. It’s tantamount to saying to a user wait for NoDo/Mango/insert OS iteration here while also assuming mobile tech is not evolving at a rapid pace. Both are not true, as indicated both by sluggish sales, poor market reception, and low user base.

            Growth and customer satisfaction is the only important metric at present

            I hope you mean the objective measures and not the amazon wireless/insert online vendor here measure that can easily be spammed to oblivion with ease and represent an unrealistic image…

            Also Nokia investors are being a bit stupid. If Nokia’s share price
            drops so low as to be a take over target I am sure Microsoft will be
            buying them at a high premium,

            Which is the exact thing that shouldn’t happen for the good of the platform and ultimate success. If that happens, you may as well stick a fork in Windows Phone – from the alienation of OEMs to carriers and resellers, and the general low numbers. Nokia is not going to be the only force that saves Windows Phone. In fact, Microsoft has several OEMs that can do the job perfectly well, but they are underutilized. And while I am both shocked and intrigued that the OEMs are still sticking by Microsoft in the midst of low expectations, buying licenses per product with low sales ultimately leading to loss of money, I am just shocked. Point blank period

            Here’s the ultimate deal. We aren’t so different you and I because we ultimately want Windows Phone to succeed in the mobile landscape because it has a lot of potential in spite of several short comings and concessions made by the end user to adopt Windows Phone in its current iteration. How we see things that leads to success differs drastically, which is fine because we aren’t supposed to have the same opinion. And I may come off as brash, but I don’t necessarily mean it. I am passionate about my thought and about Windows Phone. Ultimately the pedagogy that Microsoft adopted with Windows Mobile did lead to a lot of success and it is a model that Android copied. But copying the Apple model isn’t working for Microsoft all too well. And as a user I want to see some positive return in an investment in an ecosystem that I’ve spent both time, money, and power to evangelize Windows Phone.

            Despite not liking a lot of moves that Microsoft is doing, I like the general OS. But things have got to change, it isn’t just a Nokia pony show, it’s utilizing the top two Android OEMs to create a great product, giving other OEMs respect, decreasing the licensing fees of Windows Phone, and so on and so on and so on.

            I like Windows, but Microsoft has to give me something worth fighting for. And sadly, they haven’t

          • surur

            Its not about the OEMs, its consumer demand.  Windows Phone had low sales despite wide market presence, many models, low prices and wide support by OEMs.   Consumers want iPhones, not Live tiles. 

            You obviously agree with Kindel, but he is wrong and so are you.  Consumer demand is driving the iPhone, and cheap copies of the iPhone is driving Android.  It has nothing to do with features.  The first iPhone did not even have apps and sold then better than Windows Phone is selling now.  

            HOWEVER I love my Windows Phone, and I find the use experience much better than my Windows Mobile handsets, and on part with my wife and daughter’s iPhones. Independent assessments of customer satisfaction (e.g PCMagazine’s Reader Survey) show that satisfaction is wide spread.  Microsoft did a great job at making an OS users love.  The only problem is consumers already think a smartphone looks like an iPhone, not like live tiles.

            Not realizing this is the real problem is what is leading people astray.  Samsung understands to succeed they need to copy Apple. HTC does not understand, Sony Ericsson do not understand, Microsoft do not understand, and are failing due to this.

          • Malcolm Williams

             Its not about the OEMs, its consumer demand.

            Which is driven by
            Say it with me now – carriers and resellers. Which who ultimately are influenced by carriers/resellers? OEM. They both have such a strong relationship, it is difficult to consider them independent. And to constantly state user demand while negating the power that the carrier/reseller and the OEM has is a bit oversimplified. All it takes is some talking to OEMs, other industry analysts, and the same thing will be said.

            Android is popular because carriers and resellers love it. And so do OEMs because they get a product that is generally perceived as good without spending nearly as much versus the iphone and Windows Phone. That isn’t some misconception of things, that is a fact.

            Windows Phone had low sales despite wide market presence, many models,
            low prices and wide support by OEMs.   Consumers want iPhones, not Live
            tiles.

            Evidently not considering the iPhone has been beaten by android. users want what is popular and guess what? Carriers and resellers have a huge hand in what is considered popular. It’s rather simple and it is even something you’ve reported on. Stop me if this doesn’t sound familiar:

            Customer walks in a store and demands a Lumia 900 and the sales associate sells them what? Not a Lumia, but usually a droid or an iphone; often the droid being the preferred choice. But of course, maybe that can’t be said since Microsoft and Nokia pumped 100 million into this, to make sure associates are knowledge. And despite that, customers are still being led astray.

            Now you can negate my argument on the importance of the carrier and OEM. But you can’t negate something you’ve reported. User demand is ultimately driven by reseller/carrier demand. What drives the reseller/carrier channel? The success of the product, which guess what, brings us back to OEM.

            You obviously agree with Kindel, but he is wrong and so are you.

            so, the general manager of Windows Phone is wrong…the person that brought the platform, presented the case toward both vendors, OEMs, carriers, resellers and everyone under the sun is wrong.

            Really?

            You know that makes you sound rather bad, considering all that Kindel has done with Windows Mobile and Windows Phone. It would be him that knows better than anyone else. You can say til the cows come home and I am wrong. But, if one of the head honchos of Microsoft says it, former or not, that commands some attention.

            What more verification do you really need? Some contact from some industry insiders? I can email you some, but again you may not like them since many agree with Kindel…

            Consumer demand is driving the iPhone,

            So when, the droid does campaign catapulted Android into a mega monster, what drove that again? *hint* I’ve said it before…

            and cheap copies of the iPhone is driving Android.

            Or maybe, just maybe, the phones are cheaper, offer the user better options and receive heavy promotion by OEMs. When you get down to it, what carriers/resellers are after have been HTC and Samsung. And while touchwiz does bear some striking resemblance to the function of iOS while maintaining core android functionality, HTC sense does not. Which had a pretty darn good year and has ultimately driven a lot of Android sales.

            The first iPhone did not even have apps and sold then better than Windows Phone is selling now. 

            And this also isn’t the year 2007. The mobile tech industry can and has evolved to a major point that is post iphone. Does the iphone make a killing still? Absolutely, but is it the juggernaut it once was? No. And even in its prime, both Nokia and Blackberry still made profits, and were the only two companies that made profit in a post iphone world prior to Android dominance.

            Why? again, carriers/resellers and OEMs..

            The only problem is consumers already think a smartphone looks like an iPhone, not like live tiles.

            Now this is funny considering something very amazing you just said:

            and on part with my wife and daughter’s iPhones. Independent assessments
            of customer satisfaction (e.g PCMagazine’s Reader Survey) show that
            satisfaction is wide spread.

            You’d think if users actually liked the product in such high regards, there would be demand to see more? Simple high school marketing. Users like it, they demand more. That’s worked for a variety of different campaigns both in and out of the mobile industry.

            And yet, the irony is, that’s not happened in Windows Phone. Why is that? Oh yeah…something I’ve been saying all along!

            Thanks for the verification though, I appreciate it :-P

            Samsung understands to succeed they need to copy Apple.

            So what led to their dominance prior to their android releases, or their bada os, or the dumbphones that had a drag and drop widget interface before mimicking the iphone? Come on Surur, you’re sorta reaching far for the iphone simile, and it’s not working in real life examples.

            Are you hating on Samsung?


            HTC does not understand,

            besides q1 2012, HTC has been doing pretty darn well and made more money than their 2010 efforts, and their 2009 efforts. They decreased volume granted, leading to less market share and profits going down, which is a no duh, but prior to that, they were a success, and didn’t copy the iphone.

            And before HTC was a success, RIM and Nokia were extremely successful.

            Again, the iphone bias is dying and hard.

            Microsoft do not understand, and are failing due to this.

            Microsoft adopted everything iPhone. From rigid standardization to OEM bullying, and angering carriers. But it isn’t working, and its not because their OS doesn’t look like iphone.

            Not everything that has 4 grids of icons is derived from the iphone

          • surur

            Carriers and resellers can not make a phone successful.  Windows Phone is proof of this.

            The answer is consumer demand.  I dont know why that is so difficult to accept. 

            Lets just say my theory has much more explanatory power than yours, and passes occam’s razor – its much simpler and explains everything.

          • Malcolm Williams

             occams razor?

            No carrier/reseller -> no promo -> no sell

            I don’t know how much simpler it can be. Seriously, its how android did it. And it is also why the iphone was on AT&T for a year exclusivity and then eventually 3 year exclusivity.

            But this isn’t an iphone world

          • surur

            But Windows Phone is on more than 30 carriers, and on all 4 carriers in US and most of Europe. How can that explain anything at all.

          • Malcolm Williams

             yes with two major carriers not getting mango devices, not really promoting windows phone, very few commercials, etc etc etc. Whoopdeedoo its on a network so was the palm pre, So is the blackberry suite. It doens’t mean that it is getting promotion. I mean come on now we all know this…

          • surur

            So you are saying all Windows phone needs to sell well is promotion and a comitted OEM. Why did Nokia’s 2 million not satisfy you then.  Huge campaign in Europe, very comitted OEM. Low sales.

            Its the UI.  Thats all. People are not ready for it. Maybe Windows 8 will help.

  • waleonishmail

    so in essence, Malcom right Surur wrong?

  • waleonishmail

    by the way thanks for banning me from wmpower user, 1 less page hit for you. Lets see how long your site lasts you non mvp

    • surur

      Its lasted 4 years already.  Funny that.

      • waleonishmail

        despite my trolling you here, I actually respect you somewhat. I listened to you and edward and ali on the windows mobile podcast. Good luck to you in your endeavors 

        • surur

          Thanks for that. I’m sorry that you have been banned, and I dont know why, but I routinely ban people who say they are going to WPCentral and never coming back, because it would just be embarrassing to say that and then show up the next day ;)

          We have an have always been a fiercely loyal Windows Phone site, and unlike other sites will live and die by whether Microsoft gets it right with Windows Phone. Obviously we hope they get it right :)

          • waleonishmail

            I got banned because I probably I made some meego comments I think :) I am a meego developer. and I might have been trolling some of your diehard wp7 readers. I believe myself to be platform agnostic so I read the news from every fansite, precentral,wpcentral, androidcentral, wmpoweruser,wpsauce etc.
            I don’t have a dog in the fight because mine was killed before birth :(

  • Malcolm Williams

    I gotta make a new one of these =/
    okay @surur:disqus
    So you are saying all Windows phone needs to sell well is promotion and a comitted OEM.

    No. I’m saying Microsft has to treat all OEMs equally, end the dissension that is being created. Curtail this BS, because it is getting extremely dull. It’s not working. You need all three, carriers/resellers, strong OEMs and promotion. Ironically, that comes when you have carrier/resellers on your back.

    Why did Nokia’s 2 million not satisfy you then.  Huge campaign in Europe, very comitted OEM. Low sales.

    No carrier/reseller support. Makes or breaks a product. You need all of the above

    Its the UI.

    But the UI is what people like the most. It’s more than the UI.

    People are not ready for it

    But most like it

    • surur

      I’m in UK.  They had huge carrier support.  Stands right next to the iPhone. Trained sales staff.  Limited sales.  Yes, people who try the OS love it.  Most people however either want an iPhone or a phone that looks like it – cue Samsung – together with Apple they have 75% of the cellphone profits. 

      Would you agree that the Nokia Lumia 900 is having a lot of promotion and great carrier support in the US? If so, do you really expect them to sell more than a 1 million a month, because 1 million a quarter in US would be a lot by most estimates. In fact I think there is only about 1 million Windows Phone users in USA after nearly 18 months of sales.

      “carriers/resellers, strong OEMs and promotion” can not sell a product people do not want. Look at the Blackberry Storm. Look at the Palm Pre. 
      OEMs do not care about what Microsoft is doing with Nokia, especially for what to them is an extremely marginal product selling maybe a few 100,000 units a month. What they want is an OS which will attract buyers. Windows is not that yet.

      To make WP7 successful Microsoft needs to sell it to the end customers, and thats a very tough job which no-one, including Microsoft, knowns how to do yet.

      • Malcolm Williams

        As sad as I am to continue to circuitous mess…
        They had huge carrier support.  Stands right next to the iPhone. Trained sales staff.  Limited sales.  
        carrier support isn’t necessarily adorned with the promotion of production, but recommendation of product versus the competitors. That’s not happening, and unless Microsoft pulls what it has done with AT&T to make the Lumia 900 its sweet baby worldwide, I don’t expect sales to be fantastically brilliant.
        That’s what I mean. Strong carrier support isn’t necessarily relegated to carrier promotion. But it means that a person that comes in for a device isn’t deterred from getting that device. Some real enthusiasm should also be available for the product. And its rare I see that anywhere.
        And must we go over the entire plethora of stories of people that recommend x phone over Windows Phone? 

         If so, do you really expect them to sell more than a 1 million a month, because 1 million a quarter in US would be a lot by most estimates. In fact I think there is only about 1 million Windows Phone users in USA after nearly 18 months of sales.
        Geez, even I give it about 1.5 million as of Feb. 2012. I don’t think anymore because it is far too ostentatious and superfluous. If not absolutely sipping on some great kool-aid

        OEMs do not care about what Microsoft is doing with Nokia, especially for what to them is an extremely marginal product selling maybe a few 100,000 units a month. 
        Yes. They do. You invest R&D, support product, promote product, you care whether the product sales or not. Therefore any OEM that has produced a WP device cares about the product. Plain and simple.

        What they want is an OS which will attract buyers. Windows is not that yet.
        And yet the major ones have chose windows inspite of its lack of sales.